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this post was submitted on 13 Mar 2026
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There's a lot darker option. US and Israel tag team the populace in a genocide, shut down Iranian oil production while protecting the rest of OPEC. Leading to massive profits for Russia, some profits for US oil companies, and massive bankruptcy in Europe while crippling their manufacturing base. Which leaves the US, Russia, and China with functioning autocratic economies that can carve up the rest of the world. And the other nuclear powers are left to dismantle their own military to feed their people.
That Europe is the big loser here is a given. Which is why Europe really should get involved, today. But I don't think that the US is able to protect the rest of OPEC, at least not short-term. They are incredibly fragile and their infrastructure is exposed.
I think that the point for the US is to disrupt China. So that's the point, mess up the Middle East so that China has no reliable source of oil. Next, make a move on Taiwan. I think that China understands this and will get involved.
China already saw this coming, that's why they pushed so hard on solar and battery tech. Last year they dropped in 250GW of solar, and they'll probably do more this year. It's not there yet, but they're not as worried about this as you might think. It's a problem, but not a crippling emergency.
Europe on the other hand doesn't have good options. Regardless of what they could do, what they don't have now is the infrastructure to do it. And their biggest problem to clear out the Strait isn't Iran, it's Trump. European prosecutors are taking banking records from European banks about the Epstein files. While they can't prosecute Trump directly in any way, they can hand over anything they want to congress, or the public. In short, they are a threat to Trump, and he knows it, and he will attack anyone who threatens him, or Putin.