sugar_in_your_tea comments on The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops

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[–] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 8 points 10 months ago (3 children)

That's the thing though, options are generally relatively short in duration, with most being a few months. The longest options are around 1-2 years out.

Could AI stay keep its hype for 1-2 years? Probably. Will it? Who knows!

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[–] some_kind_of_guy@lemmy.world 2 points 10 months ago (2 children)

I assume he has enough funds to buffer and roll it forward if it takes longer than he thinks.

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[–] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 1 point 10 months ago* (1 child)

The question is, will he still see a profit if it takes 5-10 years? Will his investors stick with him even if he loses billions? They almost left in 2008, what if this takes longer than that?

If you're taking the contrarian stance in investing, you have to be right both about direction and timing, and timing the market is very hard if not impossible.

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[–] some_kind_of_guy@lemmy.world 1 point 10 months ago

Yep, you can only do so much risk management and hedging, and only for so long. There comes a time when you have to cut it off but, you know, hubris

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