My guess is venezuela is going to 'kick it off.' Trump does something stupid as another bit of red meat to toss to his little horde, he pushes argentina to help in some way, maybe he gets really brazen and tries something against brazil for their crime of daring to say anything against him (and maybe because he still has bad feelings about them from when musk was his little bestie), and china and russia decide to get rich by selling weapons to the south american countries, who will obviously have feelings about the whole us invasion. That pulls american attention away from asia, letting china have more options in their local area to bully around, and that kicks off something from that area.

Europe, africa, and the middle east might get out mostly free of conflict. The ukraine/russia war will likely still plod along.

Venezuela is target #1. Very unlikely to use nuclear weapons. Bomb some more people, and declare victory after Exxon contract awarded.

He won't confront China