As a person who has come and gone as a casual linux user a few times i have had multiple chances to experience being a new user. I have used mainsream distros and niche distros.

Agree popularity is the #1 factor to consider. You need help to get you over the first humps and having a huge existing archive of other people working through issues on forums, tutorials, etc is gold. And innumerable channels to pose questions if you need personal help.

Your first linux install is like your first date. You will probably not marry and spend the rest of your life together. No need to agonize over it passing notes and getting your fortune told. Just go for it and move on.

I think you should add that the arch docs excellent regardless of what distro you use and are beginer friendly because i actually avoided them for a while assuming theyd be written in 1337 speak and only complicated arch stuff.