If they don't understand the implications of nuclear war- or if they don't care- so be it, tbh. Or is humanity to live forever in thrall to the imperialist genocide machine?

When the west plays its brinkmanship games- as it always does- it's business as usual- but the acts of Russia and China are the acts of states that have been antagonized further and further; one side seeks a good-faith middle ground, and the other seeks only the other's effective disintegration and has constantly proven itself an aggressor whose words mean nothing- what compromise can be made?

The actions of countries like Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, etc. as well- these all are also the actions of countries which have done every measure short of willfully dismantling themselves for western exploitation, to prevent war- countries which have experienced generations of exploitation and living at metaphorical (or literal) gunpoint, and are saying "enough is enough." The same goes for much of the world, and it is the experience that has hardened the resolve of countries like North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, etc...

At the end, all that can be done is to hope that the cogs in the western war machines are not suicidal- because ultimately, the elite caste of the imperialists have little to no fear of retribution themselves in this regard- even in the scenarios of economic collapse, nuclear holocaust, biowarfare, etc, should it go down, they certainly won't be in the fallout, but in their bunkers and private islands. That is the caste you describe- and they, like capital, have no true loyalties nor care in the world for anything but their own individual propagation (if even that, some will happily and hedonistically see the world burn), they know no borders, and are beholden not to any morality nor ideology, save for the accumulation and sustaining of wealth.

There's no true middle ground with the people you describe, the highest castes of the imperialists, and the essence of imperialism (capitalism). The rest of humanity could outright go extinct, and they would be alive and well (if less comfortable than before) in their bunkers, or trying to flee to Mars or build their own serfdoms in the ruins. The middle ground exists in the hope that there is sufficient enough, meaningful enough common sense in the imperial cores, that the engines of the war machines (which are, end of the day, maintained by labor first and foremost, not by capital) are halted when they see who their real enemies are, or understand that they and their descendants- unlike their leaders- must live with the fallout of their actions. Capitalism and its highest state- imperialism- have never simply fallen due to the "good-will, benevolence, and basic human decency" of the perpetrators.

Look, the US would not hesitate to nuke China/Russia or any real competitor state if they thought they could escape being destroyed by retaliation. So it's not that they're above it. Or that they're not deranged enough to try and find an excuse if they think they can come out of it ahead. It's just that patrols around their waters are not going to push them to do it. If they intend to do it because they're backed into a corner and think odds are good they'll do it, they won't use a patrol as pretext as that's weak even for them. So it won't tip the scales either way is what I'm saying.