The question is whether this is one of those moments like when trump was first elected in 2016.

Everyone thought "ok yeah it COULD happen, but things would have to get pretty bad for THAT domino to fall", and then it happened and everyone who wanted to could look back and see that the domino pieces had in fact already fallen, things HAD gotten that bad, and now everyone can say "oh it was obvious" when at the time it was more difficult.

Same with russia invading ukraine, there were a lot of reasons to believe it wouldn't happen because it seemed like a dumb move, but at the same time there were people (of the marxist variety) going "ok but this is actually a huge number of troops to be stationing near the border and pulling them back would incurr a political cost, and also putin has some reasons to believe he has to do this soon".

So with trumps contemporary outrageous tweets, which are a step above his former outrageous tweets, like, that "invading mexico/canada/greenland" domino SEEMS to me like it's way far off, and I'm not actually seeing any intelligent analysis on why trump or those around him actually would do this.

So I'm inclined to think it's bullshit and we're just falling for his shtick like liberals always do

I don't know, this could be one of those bizarre moments in history where Trump is actually pushing on an unlocked door and one year from now theres US National Guard in Calgary and everyone's like "This is Fine"

No chance.