"Less nazi than Twitter for the next few months" isn't good enough for me to adopt it. I'm not going to board a doomed ship.

Let me be perfectly clear here: Fuck Elon Musk right in the aorta. I am NOT endorsing Twitter here. What I'm mostly doing is endorsing abandoning both microblogging and commercial for-profit social media as concepts.

Bluesky is gonna get worse. They're in attract mode right now just like any tech startup; they're burning venture capital money operating at a loss in too good to be true mode to gather users and when they hit a certain adoption rate or simultaneous active user base all the shit Twitter and Threads do is gonna get turned on.

"It's got moderation." It's got thought police in potentia. Either they're going to start using their moderation systems as a political cudgel or they're going to start letting scammers and shit through because they profit from the traffic whatever that traffic is. You won't be able to say the word "poop" but commercials for anorexia pills will make it through to teenagers. Can you name a commercial platform that didn't eventually do one or both of those? The only one I can think of that didn't just die young was MySpace, which continued to exist into its irrelevancy.

I foresee a cycle of instability that goes something like "New platform just dropped, it's like Facebook but it isn't Facebook. It's like Facebook used to be before algorithms fucked it up." Early adopters join it, there's a period where you still have to have Facebook because three of your friends whose ability to understand things doesn't work won't make the switch, eventually people leave those friends, everyone is standardized on the new thing, new thing does exactly what Facebook did, it fucks the world up again, "New platform just dropped, it's like Screechbox but isn't Screechbox, it's like Screechbox before algorithms fucked it up."

I'm kicking that in the head right now.