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Explaining the inflation rate (lemmy.world)
submitted 2 years ago by to c/whitepeopletwitter@sh.itjust.works
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[–] 52 points 2 years ago (23 children)

Hey, I was told that everything that goes up must come down. So where the hell is the deflation?

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  • [–] 49 points 2 years ago (16 children)

    I know this is a joke but deflation can be scary too. Basically if it becomes a pattern then consumer spending will crater since people know if they wait their money will be with more in the future. Obviously this effect is less on stuff people have to buy to survive but it's still not desired.

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  • [–] 29 points 2 years ago (5 children)

    Yeah inflation means noone can afford stuff but there is almost maximum employment

    Deflation results in a lot of stores shutting down since noone is buying anything anymore

    High inflation can mean noone can afford more expensive stuff, too, and that those shut down - but generally it's a better idea to have a small amount of inflation

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago (4 children)

    It's almost as if capitalism is unsustainable.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 years ago

    That's just because you don't understand economics well enough

    See, we print extra money when we create debt, which is a great big brain way to scale a very stable and very logical system. It scales with debt, which is basically wealth, right? And as long as everything always grows, people and enterprises are essentially taxed by the banks for everything that produces the underlying things money represents the economy grows. And everyone knows you either grow or die, that's just basic biology... Why do we need a system that makes money after we're dead?

    How else would you do it? Have the government print money? How would they know how much to print? Math? Economics are too complex for math, otherwise the economic models I believe in religiously would make accurate predictions.

    The solution is obvious - we just have to capitalism harder.

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  • [–] -1 points 2 years ago (2 children)

    And yet here we are, sustaining it. Unless you can convince anybody that won’t continue, you won’t have much luck arguing against it.

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  • [–] 18 points 2 years ago (9 children)

    Consumers are not going to wait months/years for the real value of their money to increase. They want their gender affirming pickup trucks now.

    It hurts the government most because of the debt load it has accumulated, and that is why there is such a strong interest in assuring that deflation never occurs.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago (8 children)

    True about loans. Inflation benefits all debtors, not just the government. So poorer people who borrow benefit from inflation more than rich people who lend. As others have said, stagnant wages are the real problem.

    Regarding deflation, people living in deflation actually do delay purchases. That's why the deflation persists. There is a cycle that happens where delayed purchases reduce business sales, which causes layoffs. That causes people to delay more purchases.

    In your truck example, someone would definitely delay that purchase if they lost their job.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    People would stop purchasing non essentials, leading to degrowth which is exactly what we need!

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago

    But the shrinking economy would happen in an uncontrolled cycle. It would be too sudden. Even your job at the plant nursery would be cut. That's why deflation is bad: it's an uncontrolled brake on the economy.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago (5 children)

    Inflation benefits all debtors, not just the government. So poorer people who borrow benefit from inflation more than rich people who lend.

    This is a common misconception.

    When you take out a loan, the rate of inflation is added to the rate at which you borrow. Rich people have inflation hedge alternatives, but you don't have much credit alternatives. Because demand is less elastic than supply, this "tax incidence" falls on the poor borrower.

    The only time this would help poor people is if the inflation is unexpected and thus not priced in already. But that can cause hyperinflation, which hurts everyone.

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  • [–] 0 points 2 years ago (4 children)

    It's not a common misconception. If you have a fixed rate loan, say a home loan locked in at 3% or 4% (like many current homeowners), then inflation above normal helps you. When your loan was created, a sub 2% inflation rate was priced in. Anything higher than that means you are winning and your lender is losing.

    Your advantage is that you can choose to refinance when rates are low, or keep a good interest rate when rates are high. Also, I don't know what inflation hedges you are talking about that "rich people" have access to. Anyone can buy stocks, real estate, or inflation protected bonds.

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  • [–] 0 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Most people do not have the option to purchase any of the things you mentioned such as stocks or bonds, as they live paycheck to paycheck, or something close to it. The loans are taken as a matter of necessity, so that much is still relevant.

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  • [–] 0 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Sorry but yes it is quite common.

    What gets priced in is the expected rate, not the current rate. So if we believe 2% is temporarily low, then they'll price in an inflation rate above 2%. They have more information than you do.

    Not everyone can realistically buy the assets you listed. There are tremendous barriers to entry that are dismissed as financial "literacy".

    Inflation isn't a free money hack for the poor that rich people have left in place out of the kindness of their hearts. It's why inequality has gotten so much worse since the Nixon Shock.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago

    Yes, it's the "expected rate" at the time you get the loan. Guess what banks expect when inflation is low? They expect it to stay low. These are fallible people, not emotionless machines.

    Banks are run by people who are not going to be around in 30 years when your loan matures. The people who approved all those 3.5% loans in the 2010s do not care that they essentially lose the bank money when inflation is higher. Plus the original bank probably sold the loan to some dumb investors long ago. That's who takes a bath when interest rates rise (due to inflation).

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  • [–] 5 points 2 years ago

    So where the hell is the deflation?

    Here's a few examples

    Japan experienced a long term period of deflation during its "Lost Decade". China's currently in a deflationary spiral, which kicked off in 2023 and ran for most of the year.

    China is a perfect example of an economy with deflation or dangerously low inflation. In 2023, China recorded a successive series of declines in its CPI, which began to fall in January 2023 and continued till July 2023, dropping from 104 points in January to 102.7 points in July. CPI improved for the next two months but dropped again in October and November 2023. In December 2023, it marked the longest streak of CPI declines in China since 2009. Similarly, the producer price index (PPI) has been in contraction for more than a year. According to Bloomberg Economics, the biggest contributor to the decline in CPI in China was falling food prices as the food prices plunged for six consecutive months from July 2023 to December 2023, dropping from -0.155 to -0.618. Among food, pork prices saw the biggest decline which plunged 26% in December 2023.

    Another big economic issue in China is its property market crisis. On January 30, The New York Times reported that China’s home sales dropped by 6.5% and real estate development plunged by 9.6% in 2023, as per the Chinese investment bank, Dongxing Securities Corp Limited (SHA:601198). In December alone, property sales were down by 17.1% year-over-year. The chief economist at Natixis, Alicia Garcia Herrero said the property market has not touched bottom yet. Herrero emphasized, “There is still a long way to go.” The property market crash in China has impacted many firms and over 50 Chinese property firms have defaulted on debt, including the two market giants: The China Evergrande Group (OTC:EGRNQ) and Country Garden Holdings Co Limited (HKG:2007).

    Thailand, Libya, Jordan, Bolivia, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, Denmark, Italy... Export-oriented countries can periodically find themselves glutted with their own surplus when supply lines break down and foreign markets fail to absorb the excess.

    Shouldn't be a surprise that China, being a global export leader, is caught in the thick of it due to the emerging US/China trade war and the shut down of the Suez Canal.

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