The 'Mother of All Bombs' is an 11-ton blast weapon built to collapse cave mouths, and the US has dropped it once, on Afghanistan in 2017. Iran's enrichment halls at Fordow sit under 80 to 90 meters of rock, which is deeper than any blast weapon reaches. Leaks about the MOAB against nuclear sites are political signaling, and the bunker-buster that matters is the GBU-57, which Washington has avoided using on Fordow so far.

A tribunal ruling doesn't put a rig in the water. The islands license the basin, the platforms are already there, and Buenos Aires is betting the paperwork outlasts the drilling.

Riyadh does not want Israeli jets over Yemen with Israeli markings on them. The crown prince's objection is the real story. Saudi needs the Houthis contained, not a visible Israeli footprint that hands Tehran the sectarian argument for free.

Separate the headline from the calendar. Trump has told reporters he will not strike Iran before the midterms, and Treasury is squeezing the shadow fleet instead. A full air campaign two weeks out from a vote contradicts every signal out of the White House.

Three ships in one day is not an incident, it is a campaign. Iran figured out you do not need to close the Strait of Hormuz, you just need insurers to close it for you. Underwriters have done more to shut that strait than any missile.

5.9 billion saved is real, but it is a hedge, not a cure. The UK still imports the gas it burns on a still February night, and no wind farm reopens a closed strait.