Sorry for the compound-sentence question.

The first part is in reference to this story which I've seen in a few different publications now.

Today, I happened to look up the price of Bitcoin (because it was relevant to a conversation I was having) and found it had shot up recently and was now at about $77,400 (up from the $63,000 when I last checked). Doing a little bit of searching, it seemed like the reason was the bond buyback.

(Sorry also for the sensationalistic hype article. I'm about as critical of blockchain snake oil as anyone can be. But I didn't find a better article about why it affected the price of Bitcoin.)

My questions are, in simple terms:

  • Is it roughly correct that buying a U.S. Treasury bond is loaning the U.S. money?
  • And that this story about bonds is basically saying that the U.S. government is "working on paying off its debts" (to bond holders)?
  • How is the interest rate on bonds decided?
  • What are bond "yields" exactly? (Is that just the same as the interest rate on bonds?)
  • Why are yields skyrocketing?
  • What reason does the treasury secretary give for buying back bonds?
  • Are there probable hidden ulterior motives for doing so? If so, what are they?
  • It seems like the idea to buy back bonds came from the White House, so this is probably a MAGA thing, yes? (Or is it more bipartisan than that?)
  • Who (if anyone) thinks the buyback is a bad idea and why?
  • Why are the blockchain bros so excited? What do they think this has to do with cryptocurrencies?

Thank you in advance, people! I like to think I know a fair amount about a fair amount, but finance (let alone fake blockchain Libertarian fairy tail finance) definitely isn't my strong suit, and I'm curious to know more about the dynamics at play here and where they're likely to lead.

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[–] 6 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago)

Christ that's a lot of questions. I can answer the one in the title though - crypto and other stores of value like gold are seen as hedges against inflation (even if the dollar gets weaker, gold stays as valuable, and crypto has the reputation of being "digital gold".

Bond buybacks are basically the federal reserve printing money so the us doesn't have to try to find buyers for its bonds, and printing money creates inflationary pressure. Thus causing people to flock to inflation hedges.

Also for what its worth, the federal reserve is independent of the white house, at least on paper. Not to say some stuff couldnt be happening behind the scenes.

Edit: ok ill answer a few more.

Bond yields are the interest you have to pay on them if you issue them/ the interest you receive if you buy them. The prices are set by the free market, so when its hard to find buyers (like to) the us government (and tech companies) have to offer higher yields

Yes, buying a us treasury bond is exactly lending the federal government money

Yields are skyrocketing due to 2 factors id say. One is that, as the us gets more and more indebted, some prospective bond buyers are starting to get a little nervous about the us governments ability to repay bonds. As far as investments go though its still seen as very safe. Probably a bigger factor right now is that the economy is in a pretty weird place due to the ai/data center boom. There's only so many investors out there capable of investing so much money (i.e. buying bonds) and now there are more people than ever trying to borrow money (i.e sell bonds) so naturally the cost of borrowing money is going to jump.

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  • [–] 13 points 1 day ago

    I can't give you a specific economists answer, but a general geopolitical one.

    US $ is very valuable because USA rules the seas and the skies, with military and trade. Because USA is a massive economic powerhouse, industrially and specifically military industry. It's also valuable because it is considered a very stable country and currency.

    Trump undermines it ALL. An unused threatening jet and bomber carrying fleet just drifting in the Persian gulf able to strike anywhere was worth much more than a failed attempt to overthrow Iran government... A steadily increasing state debt is fine while economy and trade grows and if the debt is taken to increase a country's infrastructure, Trump undermines it with tariffs and "investments" in his ballroom etc.

    Bond buyers don't necessarily expect to be paid back. The bond is a tradeable item on its own.

    Bitcoin is shit in many ways, but no single orange madman can steer its value like he can the USD. There is imo basically a pretty strong correlation by now between *coin and gold/silver. Both are considered "always valuable", especially in times of geopolitical and economic unpredictability. Bitcoin rises because many people consider it a safe haven. Wether that's really so doesn't matter as long as many people believe it. The same goes for gold or USD: it boils down to collective perception of the item. Trump has been pretty bad news the last 8 months for the USD in that regard. The less people trust in USA as a stable strong country and USD as a stable strong currency, the higher the price of public debt becomes: would you want to loan your capital to Trump and his policies? I wouldn't. High ups in large international financial market players think increasingly similarly.

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  • [–] 4 points 21 hours ago

    Why are the blockchain bros so excited? What do they think this has to do with cryptocurrencies?

    The funny thing is that things happening with cryptocurrencies themselves now have less apparent influence on their price than broader market events. Community sentiment also seems to be less relevant. This is probably because a larger share of the money is being moved around by institutional investors since ETFs are now a thing, and those people seem to be less interested in crypto itself and more interested in whatever their current idea is about its relationship with the rest of the market.

    That said, narratives like this about why the price did what it did are themselves speculation, you can't really be sure that's the actual or main reason, it is a guess. What's closer to the real reason is just that a big chunk of money was spent on it by investors, whose reasons are their own and private:

    US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $517.2 million in net inflows on Wednesday, their largest single-day investment since May 4, pushing August net inflows to $1.47 billion.

    These prices often go up and down by large percentages like this for no apparent reason too, it's not impossible that this is a coincidence.

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