Sorry for the compound-sentence question.

The first part is in reference to this story which I've seen in a few different publications now.

Today, I happened to look up the price of Bitcoin (because it was relevant to a conversation I was having) and found it had shot up recently and was now at about $77,400 (up from the $63,000 when I last checked). Doing a little bit of searching, it seemed like the reason was the bond buyback.

(Sorry also for the sensationalistic hype article. I'm about as critical of blockchain snake oil as anyone can be. But I didn't find a better article about why it affected the price of Bitcoin.)

My questions are, in simple terms:

  • Is it roughly correct that buying a U.S. Treasury bond is loaning the U.S. money?
  • And that this story about bonds is basically saying that the U.S. government is "working on paying off its debts" (to bond holders)?
  • How is the interest rate on bonds decided?
  • What are bond "yields" exactly? (Is that just the same as the interest rate on bonds?)
  • Why are yields skyrocketing?
  • What reason does the treasury secretary give for buying back bonds?
  • Are there probable hidden ulterior motives for doing so? If so, what are they?
  • It seems like the idea to buy back bonds came from the White House, so this is probably a MAGA thing, yes? (Or is it more bipartisan than that?)
  • Who (if anyone) thinks the buyback is a bad idea and why?
  • Why are the blockchain bros so excited? What do they think this has to do with cryptocurrencies?

Thank you in advance, people! I like to think I know a fair amount about a fair amount, but finance (let alone fake blockchain Libertarian fairy tail finance) definitely isn't my strong suit, and I'm curious to know more about the dynamics at play here and where they're likely to lead.

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[–] 13 points 1 day ago

I can't give you a specific economists answer, but a general geopolitical one.

US $ is very valuable because USA rules the seas and the skies, with military and trade. Because USA is a massive economic powerhouse, industrially and specifically military industry. It's also valuable because it is considered a very stable country and currency.

Trump undermines it ALL. An unused threatening jet and bomber carrying fleet just drifting in the Persian gulf able to strike anywhere was worth much more than a failed attempt to overthrow Iran government... A steadily increasing state debt is fine while economy and trade grows and if the debt is taken to increase a country's infrastructure, Trump undermines it with tariffs and "investments" in his ballroom etc.

Bond buyers don't necessarily expect to be paid back. The bond is a tradeable item on its own.

Bitcoin is shit in many ways, but no single orange madman can steer its value like he can the USD. There is imo basically a pretty strong correlation by now between *coin and gold/silver. Both are considered "always valuable", especially in times of geopolitical and economic unpredictability. Bitcoin rises because many people consider it a safe haven. Wether that's really so doesn't matter as long as many people believe it. The same goes for gold or USD: it boils down to collective perception of the item. Trump has been pretty bad news the last 8 months for the USD in that regard. The less people trust in USA as a stable strong country and USD as a stable strong currency, the higher the price of public debt becomes: would you want to loan your capital to Trump and his policies? I wouldn't. High ups in large international financial market players think increasingly similarly.

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