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[–] 108 points 3 months ago

The RAM I bought in 2019 for $100 is now over $500. at this rate I'll sell it in a few years to put my daughter through college.

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  • [–] 66 points 3 months ago (20 children)

    it will be ironic when consumers cant afford the end user devices needed to interact with the AI servers. House of cards??

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  • [–] 131 points 3 months ago (17 children)

    Let me put on my tinfoil hat really quick.

    They want to kill personal computing. You don't need a full blown computer, you need a fire stick style device that plugs into your monitor and allows you to remotely access the virtual machine you rent from Microsoft on a monthly basis.

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  • [–] 60 points 3 months ago (10 children)

    this has been “the plan” since 2005. when i was in high school trying to figure out what the heck “cloud computing” was, this is what they were talking about: anything requiring more compute than secure authentication and pixel drawing would be rendered in the cloud and delivered to dumb terminals. this is what netbooks, Chromebooks, and smartphones have been a step towards if not an implementation of.

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  • [–] 25 points 3 months ago (9 children)

    Looking back at computing history, cloud computing is basically reverting back to the original mainframes and dedicated terminals.

    There was a hype of using thin clients, the concept is that you get just enough hardware and software to be able to connect to a session running on a shared server, the admin can allocate more resources like CPU cores, RAM and storage as individual needs change over time.

    As an IT guy, I do like the concept in a corporate environment, especially when looking at the SunRay system from Sun, which used smartcards for easier access, you put your card into the client and if configured properly, you got your old session loaded and ready in a few sec, regardless of which client you put your card into.

    The YT channel Clabretro has several interesting SunRay videos.

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  • [–] 9 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

    Yup, there's a cycle between centralization and edge. Started with centralization, mainframes, went edge with the first PCs (and game consoles) and ever since corpos have been trying to pull it back to the center in waves. Thin client, cloud compute, arguably phones (as apps processing in the cloud), Geforce Now, AI. So far it's always gone back to the edge for most of the population, except for niche cases (or not in the case of phones). As internet gets faster and more reliable the chance of it sticking longer in the central zone increases (IMO).

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  • [–] 9 points 3 months ago* (1 child)

    As internet gets faster and more reliable the chance of it sticking longer in the central zone increases

    It also allow the opposite, the fediverse is a living example of it, the more internet is faster the more we can organize better to decentralize, it's harder that someone get in contact with the decentralized internet but it's more probable that it happen now than 7 years ago

    Some companies also would still continue to sell consumer hardware (like Framework, probably)

    I see it as a fight, companies are currently winning sadly but we have the power to win too

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  • [–] 43 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    I've come to terms with the fact I'm not going to be buying any new computer-type devices until the bubble pops.

    I'm just terrified what happens if one of my existing devices breaks. If a RAM stick goes bad, I might have to mortgage my non-existent house.

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  • [–] 22 points 3 months ago

    In case you are being serious, there are ways around faulty RAM sticks, usually just a few cells/rows are affected. In case anyone needs to know this, here is a pretty good summary on stackoverflow on how to deal with this on linux. In general, look for "memmap".

    Keep your hardware running as long as possible! Iirc newer RAM is unfortunately somewhat more susceptible to failing. My DDR3 is still working fine.

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  • [–] 39 points 3 months ago (4 children)

    At this rate I'll be able to sell my ddr3 from over a decade ago and make a profit compared to what I paid originally

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    [–] 34 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    I see this as an opportunity to get invested in non-tech hobbies because there’s nothing else I can do

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  • [+] 29 points 3 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (4 children)
  • [–] 27 points 3 months ago* (4 children)

    Things are probably going to get worse in the short term, but the AI bubble is going to burst. Magnitude? We'll see, but when investors realize that these companies cannot make a profit, and open source frontier models that allow you to run AI in house are removing vendor lock in, things are going to change. Also, LLMs are a dead end, and have little room to improve.

    Newer paradigms are appearing, such as Yann LeCun's JASP, which actually learns, and other approaches, which will make LLMs obsolete, and are way less hardware intensive.

    Another factor is the Chinese closing in in consumer grade RAM. If it can be proven that no backdoor or other shenanigans are there, they will balance things somewhat.

    While current reality is what it is, there may be a massive social and traditional media manipulation by the big three and other interested parties to fuel fear of rising prices forever, to push people to buy as much as they can at these prices. I have no proof of this, but I don't think it's far fetched.

    And let's not forget that for media outlets, fear and tragedy sells. (I think Hearst or some other news mogul said that last century.)

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  • [–] 25 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    Thought I could wait to build a new PC, but at this point, it'll be another 5-10 years before things start getting better. After the price of the steam machine, I ordered parts to build my own. Such a bad time to build, but it's just gonna get worse the longer I wait.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    I am figuring on selling off my previous machine once the teething issues with the new one has been resolved. Given these specs, what would be a fair price, Lemmings? I was guessing around $2,250 without the drives, but I am not really on the pulse of the market.

    00000

    • CPU = Ryzen 5950x + Noctua heatsink with Kryosheet.

    • PSU = SeaSonic Vertex GX-1200

    • MOBO = Crosshair Hero VIII + WiFi

    • CASE = Rosewill Thor V2

    • RAM = DDR4 3600, 128gb total, came as a kit of 4 sticks.

    • STORAGE (OPTIONAL) = x2 to x5 4tb SSD SATA drives, non-NVME.

    00000

    The biggest issue here is doing an RMA on the CPU. It is unstable when PBO is enabled. Since I suck at techno surgery, I wouldn't be able to install the replacement without forking over money to a technician. Maybe I can make that contingent on buying at least 2 SSD SATA drives?

    My new machine has only 4 SATA ports, and the SATA card to support all five SSDs and the optical disc drive is taking up a GPU slot. Being able to buy some 2280 M2 drives would solve that problem for me. That would gel nicely with a technician handling the transfer of the SATA SSDs back to the old machine for the new owner, since the tech can also get the M2 and a third GPU into my new PC.

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  • [–] 24 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    The ‘AI’ angle is purely cover for the manufacturers actively choosing to now behave like the pharmaceutical industry. They’ve identified a window to pull this shit, and coordinated this opportunistic collusion.

    The only meaningful response is to create a diverse production base to remove the choke point the current incumbents are leveraging, but that would require a concerted, collaborative effort by parties who can’t see and/or don’t understand the problem.

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  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago

    To play devil's advocate; it might be that the RAM producers see AI as a bubble, and it would be incredibly risky to expand their production now, when it won't come into effect until a handful of years from now.

    RAM and SSD manufacturers have already seen many many dips and rises in price over decades.

    However, that all of them are deciding not to expand and potentially rake in the cash is more than a little sus.

    I'm not sure how to feel about it personally. I hope the true cost of maintaining these AI models gets passed down to customers soon so that it either crashes and burn, or at the very least stabilises the market.

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  • [–] 20 points 3 months ago

    These price gouging assholes should probably be prosecuted along with the "AI" fraudsters.

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  • [–] 12 points 3 months ago
    [–] 10 points 3 months ago

    I'm really glad I got my steam deck last year when I had the chance.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    No reference to CXMT’s memory that’s just starting to be sold in western markets now, I’m very curious if/how that’ll affect things. If corsair’s cxmt kit can hold pricing steady, let alone drop it, for a 2x16 6000MHz CL36 kit then it could be huge

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  • [–] 13 points 3 months ago

    Yeah there's a lot of doom here, but I keep saying that there are reasons that they are locking in 5 year price guarantees, it's because they know it's going to crash back down, whether it be bubble or normalization or Chinese. It'll take some time, but it's not forever.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 child)

    Recent leaks suggest that Sony will either have to sell its upcoming PlayStation 6 console at a minimum of $960 or push the launch date back into 2028 or even beyond that.

    I seriously think that they should push it back to 2028.

    I think that Valve's making a mistake by not pushing back the Steam Machine to 2028 too, though at least for Valve, a hardware platform flopping isn't a big deal, since they don't rely on it alone to make sales.

    Or maybe I'll be wrong, and gamers will be significantly less price sensitive than they have been in the past. But my guess is that they aren't gonna be jumping on consoles with a pricetag that's that high. As I said before, the only console to be successful in the past that cost nearly that much in inflation-adjusted terms was the Atari 2600. Everything else failed.

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    [–] 6 points 3 months ago (4 children)

    8Gb of ddr4 is $25 usd and 16Gb ddr4 sticks are going for about $75 usd goes up from there depending on speed.

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    [–] 5 points 3 months ago

    Type shit that happens to me when I earn my own money

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    How long does it take a company already established in the sector to build a RAM factory?

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  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Around 4 years. The creation of any microchip requires extremely stable geology, pristine rooms, high levels of training, Scrooge McDuck moneybins, and so on. It isn't an industry that can turn on a dime.

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