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Ukraine Isn’t Winning (www.moonofalabama.org)
submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml to c/ukraine_war_news@lemmygrad.ml

According to Ukrainian frontline news Russian troops are slowly but steadily gaining ground (machine translation):

Russian troops have occupied most of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region.

This was reported by a Ukrainian fighter with the call sign “Flour”.

According to him, Russian units are already using most of the city to accumulate personnel, drones and firepower.

Only certain microdistricts at the northwestern entrance to the city remain under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or in the gray zone. At the same time, the line of contact continues to change rapidly.

Another noticeable advance, according to the military, was recorded in the Sloviansk direction. Russian units have established control over Yurkovka and continue fighting for Rai-Oleksandrivka (the Russian Federation claims that this village has already been captured).

At the same time, pressure is increasing in the Mykolaivka area, where Russian troops are trying to disrupt Ukrainian logistics with strikes on supply routes through Vysokoivanivka and on facilities in the area of the Slavyansk thermal power plant.

In the Pokrovsky direction, Russian forces, according to Muchnoy, occupied the Zaporizhzhia mine and advanced along the forest belts north of it. The situation in Rodinskoye is also complicated, where the northern part of the city was actually isolated.

At the same time, it is noted that Russian units are trying to turn this area into a local “bag”, controlling supply and movement routes with the help of drones and firepower.

The Ukrainian army is in its ever worst position. Moral is terrible, losses are high and the recruitment methods are getting more and more brutal.

The Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Syrski has long insisted on creating new ‘assault’ brigades instead of filling up the shrinking regular brigades which attempt to hold grounds.

A recent investigation by the Ukrainian outlet Babel reveals murder and torture in the recruit training camps of the 425th Assault Regiment Skala (Rock) (machine translation):

A battered head, torn hands, a chiseled lower back, dirty and broken fingers. In this state, 35-year-old Oleksandr Semenov came to the hospital in Kropyvnytskyi in January 2026. He said that he escaped from the 425th separate assault regiment “Rock”, where he was abused, beaten, tied to an ATV and dragged on the ground. In a video taken by local doctors, the man said that he witnessed at least nine suicides in the unit, briefly described their circumstances and named one of the dead. The video at Babel’s disposal was filmed on January 23, 2026, and a few days later, Oleksandr Semenov died in the hospital. The official cause of death is pneumonia.

“The Rock” is the largest assault regiment in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Unofficially, it is also called “Syrsky’s”. It is not part of any corps, but is directly subordinate to the high command. “The Rock” took part in the most difficult battles of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Despite this and combat merits, the regiment is often criticized by the military, journalists and relatives of those who got there. Due to accusations of heavy losses, the regiment has gained a reputation as “meat”. However, “The Rock” loses people not only on the battlefield, but even before combat — during military training – it counted 26 deaths. …

The newly recruited soldiers, snatched from the streets, are living in guarded tents. Going to the toilet is only allowed in groups and under the eyes of an armed soldier. Grounds around the training camp are mined. Torture is routine. People who try to flee will be shot and/or get brutalized to death.

Strana reports that the “Rock” is far from the only such unit.

The mass death of Ukrainian soldiers due to torture while in training is probably what the State Department considers as ‘winning’.

Russia has meanwhile initiated a new campaign against Ukrainian transport infrastructure and logistics. Targets are locomotives, truck depots, large post office warehouses (which run Ukraine’s military logistics), oil storage facilities and petrol stations of which more than 150 have been destroyed so far.

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[-] pleiades@lemmy.ml 1 points 5 days ago

Oddly enough, all over the reddit frontpage people are talking about how russia is losing so bad because a refinery in moscow got hit and now there are gas shortages all over russia. Is there any truth to that?

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

A refinery on the outskirts of Moscow got hit. By a drone. Drones carry relatively small payloads. Refineries are huge. Fuel tanks getting hit makes for an impressive fireball/smoke column which creates impressive pictures and videos for Ukraine's propaganda effort. But they are very easy to replace. The damage will be repaired within a week or two, just like it was the dozens of previous times Ukraine has hit Russian refineries. Russia's actual production has not been meaningfully affected, and Russia's oil revenues are higher than ever thanks to the Iran war.

No, there are not gas shortages all over Russia. There has been a gas shortage in Crimea for a couple of weeks because Ukraine hit the transportation infrastructure supplying it, precisely at the height of tourist season when lots of tourists flock to Crimea, not because they hit refineries. This isn't the first time Ukraine has caused shortages in Crimea, in fact the situation was worse before 2022. This does nothing to change the military dynamics just like it has never helped them before. Sooner or later Russia will adapt just like they always have. All it does is annoy the population and put pressure on the Kremlin to hit Ukraine even harder in return.

It also is very stupid of Ukraine to terrorize the civilian population in Crimea given how they constantly insist that Crimea is Ukrainian and occupied by Russia, because by that logic they are terrorizing Ukrainians under Russian occupation. Of course they know that Crimea is overwhelmingly Russian and always has been, which is why they take it out on them any time they are losing badly on the front lines. Which they currently are, hence the media PR campaign to distract and create the impression that they are "winning".

On the battlefield they have just lost two major fortified towns that were key to holding Russia back from the last parts of Donbass still under Ukrainian control. Their drone waves and missiles have been getting increasingly ineffective as Russia adapts and improves its air defenses. Ukraine's manpower shortages are getting worse by the day. The last infusion of cash they got from the EU has already run out and they have to beg for more billions yet again. Russia is now making new incursions and advances on secondary fronts outside the Donbass. Ukraine's much touted "counter-offensive" of this year (also mostly PR) has been completely rolled back.

And by the way, Russia has in response now started systematically taking out Ukrainian gas stations, which is actually causing shortages for the Ukraine military that often uses civilian vehicles to transport troops and equipment. Russia meanwhile has an abundance of diesel and overcapacity in refining it so they won't be running out any time soon from a couple of pinprick attacks on refineries. If i was Ukraine i would not play this game knowing that i am totally dependent on imports of fuel at a time when oil prices are spiking worldwide thanks to the US war on Iran. Russia is a producer and is never going to have a shortage regardless of the global oil situation, but the same cannot be said for Ukraine.

[-] companero@hexbear.net 39 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

And don't forget how the occasional Western think tank piece quietly comes out showing that Russia is in fact growing their military in all aspects, and holding immense reserves. Soldiers, tanks, missiles, planes - you name it.

Of course, this is where the contradictory "after Ukraine, Russia is going to invade NATO" line comes in.

[-] pyromaiden@lemmygrad.ml 37 points 1 week ago

they're killing their own soldiers holy shit

these fucking nazis are lunatics

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 33 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Yeah. It's no wonder more and more of these things are happening in Ukraine:

That is from a Ukrainian Telegram channel from Kharkov.

TCC is the conscription office that drives around hunting for any adult males they can find who they can drag into vans.

In the process they usually also brutalize anyone trying to help the "recruit" (sometimes including even their pets).

They then beat and torture them for a few weeks and then send them to a so-called "One-and-Done"* unit – their language, not mine.

*(the Ukrainian article linked in the post uses the term Одноразки – they explicitly say they are expected to die on the first mission).

Meanwhile Europe is colluding to send more Ukrainians into that hell:

[-] Belly_Beanis@hexbear.net 28 points 1 week ago

And this is just the stuff we know about coming from Ukrainian sources? Jesus fucking Christ.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 18 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Especially that Babel article that is referenced in the post is very much worth reading.

Bearing in mind this is a Ukrainian publication that is very much anti-Russian, supports the Ukrainian military, regularly publishes pro-Ukrainian propaganda pieces, and is not some kind of peacenik paper.

Some more translated excerpts from it:

"The perimeter around the training centers is mined. Signs reading 'Mines' are hung on the tape fencing surrounding the tents (...). A man who spent several weeks in the tent camp recounts that explosions could be heard almost every night; animals—hares or roe deer—would often trigger the mines."

"In short, they found us. They knocked out teeth, broke ribs—it was just a slaughter. And the guard I escaped from said: 'What do you want, you son of a removed? Do you want me to go to the front line in your place?'"

"Almost all the men who escaped from the training centers tell stories about being bound with duct tape."

"Oleksandr Zhykin has similar memories: 'Some chief of staff or someone like that came up to our tent: "Who’s here? Ah, the Third Company. The Disposables." And he walked away. Can you imagine what they call the guys? "Disposables." You know—meaning one mission and that’s it.'"

(The machine translation says "Disposables" but a more accurate translation of the word they used in the original would probably be "One-and-Dones")

"According to his account, Maksym Skipa continued to be abused at the training ground as well: 'He could barely walk. We helped him put his vest on and take it off, because if he didn't put it on, they’d beat him.'" One morning, the recruits woke up to find that Maksym had hanged himself.

"You don't always need a major reason to get beaten at 'Skala'," says a former instructor with combat experience. He knows of cases where men were abused in rear-echelon positions—over Starlink malfunctions or paperwork errors. Ribs were broken, he says, right in front of everyone during briefings. The soldier also witnessed dogs being set upon mobilized troops.

[-] demeritum@lemmygrad.ml 18 points 1 week ago

They have primarily send eastern Ukrainians to die en mass since the start.

[-] Sims@lemmy.ml 29 points 1 week ago

Damn. I did wonder what options the forced conscripts had to escape, but not much I see :-( When they get shipped to the front, a group of Nazi c*nts watches them from behind and from drones, and they are toast if they try to surrender.

All in the name of dominance and profits for the Western Epstein class and their sponsored 'free market' cult. What an absolute atrocity ! :-(

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 28 points 1 week ago

Yeah. It's very bleak. Ukrainian conscripts who try to surrender frequently get blown up with drones by their own side before they can reach Russian lines.

[-] Maeve@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 1 week ago

I'm extremely worried for our comrade from the area.

[-] LeninZedong@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 1 week ago
[-] Maeve@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 1 week ago

Yeah. It's not good.

[-] 6kb_@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 1 week ago

there was a transfem comrade talking about escaping ukraine a few weeks or maybe even a full month ago. i admit i’m scared because i think there’s been no further comment

[-] Envylike@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 6 days ago

I'm alive, sorry to worry you people. I haven't posted a lot because I have to work 7 days a week, night and evening shifts to stay housed and alive. Idk if I should make an update post but long story short shit's getting worse. Border control is getting tighter and they're now using surveillance drones in outskirts to scout for "recruits", both of these are words of mouth here though so def take it with a grain of salt. On the other hand, big hopes for a collapse or an opportunity to escape - I can almost feel the curtain calling. Or maybe it's just my cope, only time will tell.

[-] 6kb_@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 4 days ago

is it okay if i repost this just to the general megathread? idk if people saw this comment and i wonder if other people are waiting for your update.

as cfgaussian said yeah take care of yourself. that’s very scary. i hope as much as i can that things are good for you

[-] Envylike@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 4 days ago

Yeah, sure, I have no problem with that. And thank you to you both, as well as everyone else. If anything, I will survive out of pure spite.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 5 days ago

Take care of yourself comrade. Stay safe. We all hope this will be over soon.

[-] LeninZedong@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 1 week ago

Oh no, that sounds awful.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 29 points 1 week ago

I'd argue the whole campaign of deep strikes into Russia shows serious desperation on the part of the west. I think there's a dawning realization that Russia is about to take all of Donbas which would be a major turning point in the war, so now they're just throwing caution to the wind and trying to provoke an escalation. I suspect there is a clique in the west that actually wants to draw Europe into the war directly.

[-] cosmosaucer@lemmygrad.ml 12 points 1 week ago

i might be underestimating the EU but even if said clique does draw europe into the war, is there any actual europe to bring to the war

arent most EU militaries cannibalized/underfunded/underequipped/undermanned

what are eu militaries realistically gonna bring to the front when their equipments being donated to ukrainians (and being blown up) anyway. wouldnt direct involvement just make things easier for Russia and harder for Ukraine because then itd be open season on european supply lines, factories, hubs, etc

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

wouldnt direct involvement just make things easier for Russia and harder for Ukraine because then itd be open season on european supply lines, factories, hubs, etc

I'm a bit late on this answer, but yes, i actually think so too. Not that i want Russia to expand the war to Europe, i still live here lol, but they would have a much easier time if they did, and they would be fully justified, legally and morally, since Europe is already deeply involved in waging war on Russia. Europeans should be incredibly thankful for Russia's almost unreasonable level of restraint and patience with our criminal governments.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 1 week ago

That's my read on the whole thing as well, but we have plenty of evidence that Western leadership has lost touch with reality a long time ago.

[-] Maeve@lemmygrad.ml 29 points 1 week ago

If they treat their own that poorly, I can't begin to imagine how they're treating separatists.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 30 points 1 week ago

By the way i also want to point out that this post quotes exclusively Ukrainian sources. They are still downplaying how bad it really is.

[-] Maeve@lemmygrad.ml 23 points 1 week ago

That's really grim. Both comments. And I grow more frustrated with Putin, both for embracing liberalism, and for lollygagging, about which I have no control.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 25 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

I sometimes have a hard time separating my emotions from my logical side on this as well. On the one hand i understand logically the advantage of slow-rolling the conflict, managing escalation, playing the diplomatic game, draining NATO resources and waiting out the Western decline. On the other hand, so many people in Ukraine are suffering under this sadistic Nazi regime, and it is emotionally draining reading about their constant atrocities day in and day out, just like with Palestine and Lebanon...

[-] Maeve@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 1 week ago

After all these millennia, we regular humans who seek neither extravagant wealth nor extravagant power, remain pawns on the chessboard. I guess I can see now, how sanity and horrific sadism, can coexist within one human.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 28 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Unfortunately we don't need to imagine, we know. There are many testimonies from victims and witnesses about this that you can read/listen to. They treat them like Israelis treat Palestinans.

[-] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 25 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

No shit? their recent attack on Crimea is basically an admission they'll never take it back, so pissing off the population doesn't matter

imo the higher ups in the UAF and its NATO allies know its over(me being super smart knew they'd eventually lose 2 years ago when videos of them forcible conscripting Hare Krishna's came out, I'm sure they turned into effective soilders) so its just a matter of how much punitive damage they can inflict on Russia before they're forced to come to the table

[-] Hestia@hexbear.net 25 points 1 week ago

Fighting till the last Ukrainian.

[-] big_spoon@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 1 week ago

only dumb libruls would think that ukraine is "winning something"

I’ve been saying this for a while (even when I was a Dem-Soc that didn’t really get geopolitics) but Russia will prob win. The NATO-sphere needs to get this through their heads and stop sending old dudes to the front lines to get blitzed

[-] Maeve@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 1 week ago

Why? It makes the "right" people money and gets rid of the "wrong" ones, prolonging Western hegemony.

I don't endorse this view, and it's still grossly simplified.

this post was submitted on 26 Jun 2026
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