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Ukraine's military collapse is probably closer than most people understand; the reason: demographics (nitter.net)
submitted 3 years ago by to c/ukraine_war_news@lemmygrad.ml
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[–] 10 points 3 years ago (3 children)

If that were the case, wouldn't the constituent member states have an uptick in deaths? This would be noticeable. Even if it were hidden in the numbers, the families of those who died would be informed, and there's no way to keep that under wraps at that point.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 years ago

    That's true. I've been wrong before. I spent the first couple months of all this thinking the war wasn't kinetic at all because nothing was making sense about casualties and troop movements.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 years ago (1 child)

    Counterpoint of sorts: the now infamous Wagner PMC (mercenaries) have been operating in Africa for several years, close to a decade AFAIK. There's been plenty of claims regarding their casualties, some likely exaggerated, some likely true. And yet their activities remained mostly hidden from the public eye. Mind you, Russia doesn't have that big of a population nowadays, maybe half that of USA. And most of it is elderly, so losing a significant amount of "fighting age" men would surely be noticeable. With NATO, you get casualties spread thin across multiple countries. A hundred from France here, a couple hundred from Germany there. That's basically traffic accident statistics

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  • [–] 1 point 3 years ago

    I see what you're saying but I would think the families in NATO countries would either be more vocal or be more likely to be picked up in the press. Especially when the world's eye is already on the Ukraine situation, news about direct NATO involvement proved by deaths would be much more likely to be picked up than a (formerly barely known or talked about) group operating in a place that the Western press doesn't care about or cover.

    There are also people from a several (NATO included) countries who have volunteered to go to Ukraine to fight in a non-official capacity, some of whom have died, and this gets widely circulated in the press when it happens, normally with involvement from the surviving family. If these families think their child has died fighting for good, they're not going to keep their mouths shut about it. Even if they think their child wasn't fighting for good, they won't keep their mouths shut about it.

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