nah, i don't even really use tumblr because it is so painful to use. actually, it was their link shortener that was the last straw^[and the fact that they convert every bleeding image into a webp]. i'm just saying i don't think it's a site that can ever exist again.
reddit is just a link aggregator, that's easy to recreate. twitter is just individual paragraphs, as long as there are people any site will work. tumblr is so broken that it's used exclusively by people who started using it in the 00s, when it was popular, and never left. they're not really what i'd call friends, more monkeys in a zoo to laugh at. but as it's so broken and opaque to start using, it was never marauded by children; so everyone on there is in their 30s but pretending they're not.
it's a coincidence that can never happen again, as any alternative site would first be used by techie early adopters, who would be on average younger than most of the tumblr userbase. maybe we'll get another tumblr in 10 years though