The M3 MBP and 15" M2 Air are too close together with 8GB and the M3 in the new 14" chassis without 16GB ram just isn't good value proposition for an MBP model.

I dunno, I think there is a bit of overlap for the 13" MBA and base 14" MBP. Once you spec them for similar internals, it's a $200 difference which nets you the XDR/ProMotion panel, extra cooling, and built-in HDMI 2.1 and SD card slots, while also reducing (albeit not eliminating) the arbitrary external monitor limit.

The problem is that the base MBA is such a good computer in its own right that it's debatable whether it's worth speccing the internals higher rather than just committing to a slightly more expensive MBP to start.