this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2023
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The maximum a phone will ever last is probably ~10 years, because that's about how often 2g, 3g, lasted. By then it certainly isn't getting any software updates and on the Android side, security updates won't even last 5.
So the maximum lifespan of a phone is, reasonably, 5 years. That's taking into account software updates, and other wear and tear.
During that time, if you use and abuse the battery, you might go through 2 batteries, which you can have serviced.
So I'd say it's more akin to a timing chain that's a pain in the ass to replace. Most car owners would not try to replace a timing belt, much less a timing chain.
I'd say that it's tough to make a definitive statement on the maximum lifespan of phones.
For one, Fairphone is selling phones with 5 year warranties, so I don't think there's any argument that a phone with a replaceable battery and continuous updates shouldn't last at least 5 years.
With regard to cellular technologies, I think it's hard to compare the technologies of the 2000's with the technologies of the 2010's and 2020's. Smartphones radically changed the purpose of cell networks, which meant there was a rapid shift in technologies in the 2000's.
That said, 2G networks like GSM and GPRS are still around and are only set to be shut off in some countries around 2025. GSM is from 1991, and GPRS was standardized in 2000, but the protocol existed as early as 1993. That's 20-35 years that you could use your old StarTac or RAZR, though, those are not smartphones.
3G didn't last as long as 2G did, as it was more of an overclocked 2G developed as a bandaid to keep up with smartphones, as opposed to the packet-switched network that we have now with 4G and 5G.
Looking at the most recent technologies, LTE and Evolved Packet Core are still the backbone of our cellular networks, new wireless standards like 5G NR just piggy-back off of existing 4G networks. LTE has been commercially available since 2010, so again, that's over 13 years of radio compatiblility, with likely another decade to go.
Considering how much smartphones have matured and how the pace of releases have slowed down, I don't think it's unreasonable for the average smartphone to last 10 years like laptops do. It just requires better compatibility and maintenance on the software front, which Google has already been improving on for the past 5 years.
Over here 3G got completely shut down and frequencies reused for 5G. Most bandwidth seems to be allocated to 4G, 2G is, as far as I can tell, bound to stay: It's legally mandated to be available for emergency calls and is plenty for dumb phones.
You can certainly make the argument that phones (and computers) are slowing down. It used to be a revolution every year or two, now it’s very incremental.
I would not say though that you can effectively use a 10 year old phone. There are some old networks out there, but major networks shut down 3g.
You might have seen Joanna Stern’s attempt to use an iPhone 3G on YouTube last year (if not watch it for some amusement). Even if the battery on that device were fine, the device was really pretty unusable.
Also: even if the battery were easily replaceable, replacements will only be easy to find for the most popular older phones.
Yeah, I'm not saying that people should be using a Nexus 5 (a 4g phone) in 2023. Smartphones have matured a lot since 2013 though, and I think phones coming out now will still be perfectly usable in 2033, as long as replacement parts are available and they are updated to 2033 software. There are people using x230 Thinkpads in 2023, so it's definitely possible with laptops.
I'll have to check out that video, it sounds pretty interesting!
Yeah, Thinkpads are still usable, though I don't think most people would want to run an x230 today. It might be usable on Linux with XFCE. But Windows? Eh...
Either way, what's stopping phones from lasting longer isn't really batteries. You could take a phone in for a replacement battery every 2 years and it would still be unusable before too long because of software updates.
I do think requiring OEMs to provide security and software updates for at least 5 years would be a sensible regulation. Maybe even 10 years for devices over $1000.