I think of it like having sex with or without a condom. If you don't use a condom, there's a chance to get an STD (or get "caught"). It's not a guarantee to get caught, your IP address needs to end up in the pool of addresses they collect to send out DMCA notices so it won't happen every time. But having a "condom" (VPN) reduces your chances by nearly 100%, assuming it's properly setup which usually is a very simple process
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