It's certainly plausible but I doubt they feel the need to do something so risky. The deep state will continue to chug along as normal regardless of the outcome. Despite the DSA wave, it isn't enough (yet) to throw a wrench into the genocide machine. Only if such a scenario was being threatened would I think they'd cross the line into open manipulation of the actual votes themselves, because being caught violating a process the average American deems quite literally sacred would cost the state tremendous amounts of legitimacy, especially at a time when the legitimacy of institutions is eroding across the political spectrum. At least that's my guess, I could be wrong and they're doing it or have done it before, but the propaganda machine is so well oiled to maintain the status quo that I would be shocked if they did something so drastic just to keep out a handful of demsocs and socdems out of a miniscule amount of power.

Editing to add: I think it's a mistake to think the deep state is wedded to the Trump coalition. The MAGA coalition will eventually collapse, whether that's because Trump drives the world economy off a cliff with the West Asia war or he leaves office or dies or whatever, the far right will eventually recoalesce into a more explicit American fascism. In the meantime, the Democrats will take their place governing in an increasingly forceful neoliberal manner by using the oppressive tools crafted by the Trump 2 admin, maybe even diffusing some popular discontent by using AOC as the president in '28 or '32 by lying about doing sixteenth-assed social democratic stuff again.