Russia is losing roughly 25,000 troops killed every month in Ukraine while gaining little ground, according to Finland’s President Alexander Stubb.

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[–] 1 point 9 hours ago (8 children)

Putin has made it so he has an unlimited ability to mobilize. It's all based on how far he can push the different means of mobilization.
Before the election they kept id "modest" at about 1000 per day, but there are speculations that Putin could be able to mobilize 500000 personnel in a short time if decides to.

So Russia definitely has the means to sacrifice more if needed, the question is how much the Russian people is willing to accept. Because even with falsified information, the mobilizations and deaths and wounded can't be kept secret forever even with the best propaganda.
I keep hoping that all we are waiting for is the straw that breaks the camels back. But although it's been buckling for a while in many ways, it seems it simply wont quite break.

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  • [–] 1 point 6 hours ago (7 children)

    Putin has made it so he has an unlimited ability to mobilize.

    No, Putin is still bound to the laws of physics, russia is severely limited in their ability to mobilize and they are most limited in the roles that matter like sophisticated air defense.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 hours ago* (6 children)

    No, Putin is still bound to the laws of physics,

    Yes sure, but he has free reign without being hindered by Russian law as he used to be.
    So now he can legally make a huge silent mobilization without opposition.

    But the average age in the Russian army on the front is allegedly 38 years. And that's a pretty clear sign they are struggling to get the number of people they want.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 hour ago (1 child)

    Do we really reliably know how many they have lost or the average age? How?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 hour ago*

    Information in war is almost never 100% reliable, I don't know where the age number came from, I just saw it reported.
    The number of lost Russian soldiers should however be pretty reliable as that is published every day by the Ukrainian ministry of defense. Last I did the math it was about 960 per day. These numbers have been somewhat confirmed by a UK Institute for the Study of war, and even Pentagon although it's a long while I've seen numbers from them last.
    I guess the average age is also from Ukraine.

    I post the daily numbers here every day.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago) (3 children)

    The reason russia is losing the landwar to Ukraine has nothing to do with how many untrained, clueless, scared infantry they have to throw away in mindless waves. Russia is no longer capable of applying artillery pressure on the frontlines without exposing the platforms it uses to do so to being obliterated. Glidebombs are russia's last crutch to lean on but Ukraine just today demonstrated the capability to reach out and destroy russian fighterbombers on the ground, at the static infrastructure they rely on.... glidebombs launched from high performance fighterbombers is a collapsing sandcastle of a strategy for russia.

    Russia can't magically turn a random person into someone capable of operating a sophisticated air defense system and actually protectly friendly airspace without shooting down passenger airliners by accident. That takes years, money, systems of effective professional accountability and it takes a consistent supply of equipment that actually works.

    Russia is fucked.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 hours ago (2 children)

    I agree, but there are political leaders that are expressing concern about it, and among those are Zelenskyj.

    I have previously expressed that sending more untrained people to the front will achieve nothing, and only increase their losses.
    But you have the experienced people already there, and they use these new canon fodder "soldiers" to run out to die, to reveal Ukrainian positions. It's absolutely disgusting, but they do get some tactical benefit from these poor bastards.

    Yes Russia is fucked. But the war is an enormous burden and cause for suffering for Ukraine.
    It would be better if Russia simply collapsed already.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 hours ago (1 child)

    Yes I agree the war must stop, I do not desire endless conflict I just also realize how Putin will try to use mass terrorism against Ukrainian civilians to distract the political narrative about power balance here.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 hours ago

    Oh yes, Putin is always trying to be as scary as possible. Both in an attempt to make Ukraine give up, but also in an attempt to make their allies give up. The truth is Putin lost already in the early days, when Zelenskyj refused an airlift out of Kiev, an stated he needed weapons not a ride.
    Putin tries to manipulate and scare to influence politics as you say. But luckily not everyone is falling for it. It's mostly the weak minded like Trump.
    But the story about mobilization of up to 500000 troops is not a Putin story, that's a Zelenskyj story and many analysts making that warning.

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