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[–] 9 points 1 week ago* (3 children)

This is a bad take. No information about your vote should be available to the federal government until after election day.

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Seven states permit scanning only after the close of polls: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Illinois, Mississippi, New Hampshire and West Virginia. Ten of these states permit scanning on Election Day, but before the close of polls: Arkansas, Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

No state allows results from scanned or processed absentee/mail ballots to be released before the close of polls on Election Day.

And we know this system is pretty robust, otherwise we'd get early vote results for many states just from leaks. I don't see any such leaks reported.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    Right, but if a largely dem area is surging in early voting compared to last trump midterm election, its easy enough to extrapolate

    I'm not saying youre wrong, but the logic above is used all the time in early voting by the media to start to guess.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    You're right that everything gives some data, and that data can be used to forecast. But also, this extrapolation has been pretty lousy in the last couple years. As a public, the USA has been pretty good at being unpredictable recently...

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