Based on the numbers at https://steamframeout.com/ you can do some very rough back of the envolope calculations and it's not looking great.

In recent days, purchases and deliveries seem to move to a pretty consistent 150/day pace. At this rate, moving through the queue of roughly 37.000 reservations will take around 240 days.

Being more generous you could substract the already shipped Frames and assume a more optimistic 160 deliveries per day. This shortens the timespan to just 200 days for the outstanding backlog.

So yeah, the last reservations would be delivered around April 2027.

I am fully aware of all the caveats of the numbers used, this is just a fun little exercise based on available data.

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[–] 1 point 3 days ago

Which is honestly a pretty smart way to handle things, even if it feels frustrating. Valve doesn't want to create a larger supply than there is demand for, because they stand to lose a lot of money. If they limit the initial supply they can get an idea of the rate at which people who joined the waitlist (a low effort, zero cost ask) are actually placing an order vs deciding not to. Once they have good data on that rate, they can ramp up production to meet the actual demand.

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