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RAM to see 'meaningful price increases' before 2026 is out, as the memory crisis is predicted to last 'at least' another 3 years (www.techradar.com)
submitted 1 day ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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[–] 6 points 1 day ago (5 children)

Also lots of people in threads like these are assuming that "the AI bubble pops" means "everybody stops using AI and it all goes back to the way things were before ChatGPT came along." There's still an enormous demand for AI inference, that's simply not going to go away. People will still want to use AI. The bubble popping would mean a big drop in resources being spent on developing new models, that's all. It'd help the prices somewhat in the short term. But in the long term we simply need more chip foundries.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (1 child)

    It's more than just that. Smaller models are improving rapidly and are already "good enough" for the majority of consumer use cases. It is entirely realistic that in a few years, there will be virtually no demand for trillion-parameter LLMs. Demand for inference might not shrink in terms of functionality, but it will absolutely shrink in terms of memory and compute requirements. And then there will be a hell of a lot more server capacity available than anyone needs or wants, because they're over-investing like crazy now.

    What happens when hundreds of billions of dollars spent on datacenters basically goes *poof*?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago

    The people who paid for the data centers will go bankrupt, the data centers themselves will be sold for pennies on the dollar, but then the people who bought those data centers for pennies on the dollar will be able to make profit renting inference for a lower price than those original investors could have sustained themselves on. So I'm expecting there'll still be plenty of AI horsepower churning away, it'll just be doing it more cheaply and not doing it under the banners of the current incumbents.

    First movers often fail in this manner, they spend a lot of money making mistakes and discoveries that later followers can make use of for cheap.

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