cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/11709996

Estonia is permanently stationing its troops closer to the Russian border and acquiring weapons capable of striking deep inside its neighbor's territory as the NATO eastern flank country prepares for possible Russian aggression after the war in Ukraine ends, the Financial Times reported (behind paywall), citing Estonian defense officials.

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Estonian officials fear the Kremlin could take an opportunistic gamble, such as launching a smaller-scale incursion aimed at testing NATO's collective defense clause. They say neither Estonia nor NATO can currently credibly deter such a scenario. This has prompted Estonia, which has no air force of its own and therefore relies on NATO to protect its airspace, to shift to an active defense strategy, the newspaper wrote.

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"We have to start from the border and win from the first battles," said Col. Tarmo Kundla, commander of the 1st Infantry Brigade, the country's main fighting force.

As part of the new strategy, his unit will be permanently relocated from Tapa, about 130 kilometers from the Russian border as the crow flies, to Jõhvi, just 50 kilometers from the border. New facilities are currently being built there to house the brigade's soldiers.

"Deterrence is not working," said a senior Estonian military intelligence official. "The critical period to address that, for all of us in the Baltic states, is in the next one to four years."

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