Given equal scaling speed
This is already not the case for computers. And you're trying to argue that we might one day be able to run the bigger models on consumer hardware, but I said it's too expensive to train them. And you know that the cost isn't just the RAM right?
Sure, my saying they will "always" be tied to concentrated capital is slightly hyperbolic. You never know. But it takes a whole lot of optimism to hope that LLMs will be decoupled from the billionaire class, hence why most analyses of the problems LLMs cause discuss them in this context.