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[–] 13 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

Russia has nothing to attack with. The only weapon in their arsenal is cyber crime. I don't think they can mount a meaningful full assault on Europe. They can barely manage against Ukraine who are defeating Russian forces 10 to 1. Mutually assured destruction would signal the end of Russia should they use a nuclear option, but I genuinely don't think they ever would.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 weeks ago

    I mean, the Leipzig explosive drone is definetly not cyber crime. I think the worry is that Putin would really like to do a forced mobilization to get more soldiers to send to Ukraine, but that would be extremely unpopular and would put the regime's stability at risk. Unless an attack on NATO provoked some kind of (even small) military response, which could then be shown to the russian public as justification for a mobilization. Hopefully whatever hybrid attacks they are planning are not successful, and if they are hopefully NATO countries will keep showing the same restraint when it comes to direct military intervention

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