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Paul Keating says Aukus locking Australia into a US war against China, which it would ‘certainly lose’ (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 2 weeks ago by to c/australianpolitics@aussie.zone
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He's a bit of a prick but he's not wrong. I wonder what Rudd would think were he not currently a diplomat.

Both were pretty clear-eyed about the opportunities of working with China and the futility of standing against them given the insignificance of Australia as anything but a weapons platform for the imperial machine of the USA.

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[–] -1 points 2 weeks ago (13 children)

who do you think is more likely to attack us, china or the usa?

if/when china invades democratic taiwan like it did hong kong, what do you think we should do? get the un involved? send a strongly worded letter?

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 2 weeks ago (9 children)

    They did not invade Hongkong the British had a 99 year lease and china had sovereignty.

    You can not like that, or how reintegration was done, but it doesn't make it an invasion.

    I'm not going to engage in good faith if you are going to be histrionic and disingenuous.

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  • [–] -1 points 2 weeks ago (8 children)

    who do you think is more likely to attack us, china or the usa?

    if/when china invades democratic taiwan, what do you think we should do?

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 weeks ago (7 children)

    That is invalid framing. I do not think it is likely that china will attack us, I think the alliances we are in and hosting usa military shit makes it more likely, I think it is fairly likely (say >2% in 50 years) that we will declare war on china.

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  • [–] 0 points 2 weeks ago (6 children)

    no worries 🙈

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 weeks ago (5 children)

    You tell me, if you're confident in your opinion it must be because you've researched it a lot and are well informed about their military posture. why would they?

    Be concrete, what would they gain? How much would it cost? How long would the war be? What would the attack look like? What forces would be involved?

    I think you're operating in the idealism land of china bad us good evil vs good is why war. Can you actually state your position and reasoning in material terms?

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  • [–] 1 point 2 weeks ago (4 children)

    sorry no im of the belief that despite the usa being a backwards country lead by a retard, Australia culturally is far similar and closer (some would argue we are too close) to america than china

    china as mildly as you’ve made them seem is still an authoritarian dictatorship, if criticising dickfingers carried the same penalty as criticising jingping lemmy would have been deleted and we’d all be dead or in jail

    in terms of invasion it depends on how we respond to the invasion of taiwan, if we send a strongly worded letter then i assume we’ll largely be spared, but if we get involved i don’t know how it ends

    but i would never ever underestimate the worlds second strongest army with the worlds strongest by far manufacturing capacity

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 weeks ago (3 children)

    ah yes, vibes based geopolitical analysis

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  • [–] 1 point 2 weeks ago (2 children)

    which part do you think is most vibes

    that we are culturally the same as americans

    that taiwan is likely to be attacked by china

    https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/08/24/fresh-off-major-defense-drills-taiwan-proposes-record-military-spending/

    maybe you should go tell the taiwanese to chill out?

    and how hard we are targeted depends on how deeply we get involved in the defence of taiwan?

    We’re not impervious, we have been hit before

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Darwin

    China is watching the russian invasion of ukraine and learning

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  • [–] 2 points 2 weeks ago

    the US. Everything they do, they hurt us.
    The US has threatened to invade Canada, Greenland, Mexico and Cuba, recently and currently have a pedo, rapist, felon as President (speaking volumes of it's voting ciitizens). We align with them in some horrific shit like the appaling genocide in Palestine

    China has some argy bargy with The Philippines over some shoals in the south china sea, fucked over Tibet and has some border argy bargy with India and will take Taiwan at some stage.

    The question of their invasion is ridiculous, they could invade Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and and Myanmar, Pakistan, India, Mongolia, Malaysia, Singapore and Bangladesh tomorrow if they wanted, they are literally next door. New Zealand, Fiji etc would offer zero resistance.

    They have zero chance of invading and successfully holding Australia, Russia can't even walk into Ukraine and they are next fucking door.

    The US cant be relied upon as an ally at all, it told Ukraine it would defend it if it gave up it's nukes, they said tough shit buddy when they were needed.

    Should we be best buddies with China ?, of course not but they should be in the same category as say Vietnam

    The only reason we'd even be a target is because of stupid shit like ANKUS and the endless US bases on our soil (in many ways, we're a colony if the US already)

    China has zero reason to invade, we already sell them everything they want for way cheaper then an invasion would cost.

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  • [+] -7 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 child)

    Can you tell us the last date China dropped a bomb? Please?

    You're confused. China doesn't do imperialism. China's actions in Tibet weren't imperialism, they were liberating a feudalist society that still used slaves. Taiwan is literally allowed to exist as a thorn in China's side, but that's not good enough - you HAVE to believe they are going to invade it. Because that is all you know.

    Between the US and China, it is certainly the United States that will inevitability attack Australia. You just don't realize it because you're too busy slurping up ChinaBad propaganda. With the US as your ally, you've already sealed your fate. And China will happily watch your decline.

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