We are small, but lucrative. If something is introduced where Valve faces losing access to the Australian market, they'll 100% cave. No 'principal' from their end is worth however many Millions of dollars they receive from this market - particularly since they do honestly have actual competition. Valve enjoys market share mostly because they were first and are convenient. If they cease to be convenient, they will lose that share overnight. We're already seeing people in this thread say they are going to stop buying games on Steam. The main reason I do most of my shopping at the Steam Store is that most of my library is there. Not for any other particular reason.
I don't know what the the government can do that will stop people dealing with Steam, unless they can intervene at the bank level. That's where the fascination is coming from. This is the first decent-sized site to show this level of resistance to the policy.