EDIT: for a less biased version of this Article, you might want to read the reporting of The Guardian.

Pro-independence first ministers will sign ‘memorandum of understanding’ at Cardiff summit and demand referendums

The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will gather on Monday to sign a deal designed to kick-start the break-up of the United Kingdom, The Telegraph can disclose.

At an unprecedented summit in Cardiff, the three first ministers will put pen to paper on a joint declaration demanding the right to hold independence referendums.

The meeting comes after Andy Burnham suggested to MPs that he would authorise another Scottish referendum if there were a “clear consensus” in favour of one.

The summit will come two days after Donald Trump declared that he would “love” to see a united Ireland. During a visit to Dublin on Saturday, he said Northern Ireland joining the Republic would be “a great thing” and asked: “How can it be bad?”

The US president intervened as nationalist leaders pile pressure on the Prime Minister, who has put devolution of power in England at the heart of his agenda.

John Swinney, the SNP leader and Scottish First Minister, claimed Mr Burnham was “facing up to the idea that he will go down in history as the final prime minister of the United Kingdom”.

John Swinney has been told there will be no immediate Scottish referendum Credit: Jane Barlow/PA Wire

Labour’s rout in Wales at May’s elections means there are now pro-independence parties in power in all three devolved nations for the first time.

Plaid Cymru surged to become the largest party in the Cardiff Senedd, with Rhun ap Iowerth, its leader, taking over as the country’s First Minister.

Rhun ap Iowerth became First Minister of Wales in May, giving all three nations pro-independence leaders for the first time Credit: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Meanwhile, the SNP fortified its position as the dominant power in Scotland, despite losing six Holyrood seats as Reform and the Greens made gains.

Sinn Fein won the Stormont elections in 2022, though a walkout by the DUP meant that Michelle O’Neill had to wait until 2024 to become First Minister. Sinn Fein is widely expected to hold on to power when the nation votes again next year.

Michelle O’Neill will be joined at the talks by Mary Lou McDonald, the president of Sinn Fein and leader of the opposition in Ireland’s Dail Credit: Liam McBurney/PA Wire

The three leaders, who will be joined by Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein’s president and leader of the opposition in Ireland, will gather at the five-star St David’s Hotel, overlooking Cardiff Bay, to discuss working together on a fresh independence drive.

Status quo ‘not sustainable’

Mr Swinney said on Sunday: “For the first time ever, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are led by pro-independence first ministers. There could be no clearer sign that the status quo is not sustainable – and that Westminster must prepare for a post-UK future.

“The momentum behind serious constitutional change is undeniable. Andy Burnham must now be facing up to the idea that he will go down in history as the final prime minister of the United Kingdom.

“Tomorrow in Cardiff, I am looking forward to discussing a better future with partners from across these islands – and that only comes with the fresh start of independence.”

It is understood the three first ministers will use the summit to sign a joint declaration asserting their respective nations’ right to self-determination.

Sources told The Telegraph the aim was to pile more pressure on Mr Burnham, following his statement at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday that another Scottish independence referendum could be held if public opinion backed one.

The Prime Minister told the Commons that the trigger for a separation vote was “exactly the same situation in Scotland” as Northern Ireland.

Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, there is a potential pathway for an Irish reunification poll to be held. It states that a referendum should be staged if it “appears likely” that a majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote to leave the UK.

‘If I was a Unionist, I would be very worried’

“He [Mr Burnham] f---ed up by using the Scottish line in Northern Ireland then this week f---ed up again by using the Northern Ireland line about Scotland,” a source close to Mr Swinney said.

“Burnham has not read his brief and doesn’t seem to know the basics of the UK Government’s position on the Union. If I was a Unionist I would be very worried.”

After the talks, where they will sign a memorandum of understanding committing their parties to cooperate, the first ministers will hold a press conference.

Their agreement will cover four areas – the economy, energy, Europe and international cooperation and self-determination.

All three parties will agree that their nations should be in the EU, Scotland and Wales as new members and Northern Ireland as part of the Republic of Ireland.

It is understood that the memorandum of understanding will also commit them to strengthening relations with European “neighbours” as they prepare for independence.

The part of the deal focusing on the economy will argue that the UK’s economic model is not working for the citizens of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Plaid Cymru is expected to use the meeting to put pressure on Mr Burnham to hand the Welsh government further powers over tax and spending. It is demanding revenues from the Crown Estate, including the seabed on which offshore wind farms are built, which currently go to the Treasury.

The party also wants Labour to replace the Barnett Formula with a more generous settlement and to devolve further areas such as policing and rail funding.

A Plaid Cymru source said there was “a strong case for practical political cooperation on areas including energy, the economy and our relationship with Europe, as well as on the wider political and constitutional questions facing our nations and on the right to self-determination”.

“Our parties have much to gain from working together, as partners and as equals, where we share common interests and where cooperation can improve the lives of the people we represent,” the source added.

Irish unity ‘not a distant aspiration’

A Sinn Fein source said the leaders would discuss “how each of our nations has the right to shape its own future through democratic means, guided by the will of its people”.

“The Good Friday Agreement gives us the democratic means to decide it, and now is the time to prepare seriously for that choice,” they said.

“Irish unity is not a distant aspiration. The work of building the new Ireland must begin now.”

In a letter to Mr Swinney, sent on Thursday, the Prime Minister insisted another Scottish independence referendum was “off limits” before the next general election.

He insisted there was “no consensus for an independence referendum in Scotland and nor is there a clear basis to suggest that a majority of people in Northern Ireland presently wish to separate from the United Kingdom”.

Mr Burnham wrote: “The 2024 manifesto on which Labour secured its parliamentary majority was unambiguous: ‘Labour does not support independence or another referendum.’

“As I made clear to you personally when we met recently in Glasgow, independence and a referendum are off limits as it would take our focus away from growing the economy and helping families with the cost of living.”