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[–] 19 points 2 days ago (6 children)

Unlike the other tech bubbles, LLMs are a real technology with actual use value. They're overhyped, but not worthless. This gives the bubble room to grow, unlike previous tech bubbles which were hyping up worthless crap.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    actual use value

    Citation needed.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

    TL;DR: IAMAE and can't find a decent source because the internet is shit, but a good LLM won't modify your source data source and won't hallucinate an answer for you, it will give you the prompt. The bubble technology and how most people are using LLMs, and how capital wants you to use LLMs, is backwards. It's like going to a methed up doctor with a diagnosis and asking the doctor to prove your diagnosis to you, instead of the doctor soberly observing your health and telling you what if anything is wrong based on what they actually observe.

    Talk to anyone who worked with LLMs before ChatGPT was a household name and didn't work for OpenAI or Anthropic. like before 2019. This person will likely sigh deeply in anguish when you bring the subject up, because their whole career and practice has been bastardized. See https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/researchers-translate-bat-talk-and-they-argue-lot-180961564/ from 2016.

    The first use case for LLMs was basically analyzing large sets of structured (like a table with headers and consistent values) data. Like audio recordings of bats making noises. Or cancer biopsy results. With the right training and data, a LLM can identify patterns that a human likely couldn't based on looking at characteristics of the data that just wouldn't be apparent or the data set too large for a human to comprehend.

    The second use case for LLMs was analyzing unstructured data, like all the Discord messages with freeform text. Or pictures of fruit on a conveyor belt. A trained LLM could tell you if people were talking about agitprop or movie reviews, or if a piece of fruit is above or below a quality threshold because of it's size, coloring, shape, etc.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago (2 children)

    What other tech bubbles are you referring to that were less useful than LLMs?

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  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    Guessing crypto and the metaverse. Which all blew up and deflated in ye olden times of 5 years ago

    dennis-stare

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  • [–] 7 points 2 days ago

    Yeah, and NFTs too. NFTs and metaverse are truly fundamentally useless. Crypto definitely has SOME use as it's become a major tool for international trade and can totally play a role in future currency structures. But obviously massively overhyped and primarily a speculative asset. But all of those are the bubbles of the last decade or so, after American tech plateaued. There were plenty of bubbles beforehand that produced genuinely useful and productive new technology. LLMs could have been a smaller one of those with the appropriate level of investment. The problem here is not really the utility of LLMs (which yeah, is real but not earth-shaking) and instead the MASSIVELY disproportionate capital investment that has upended the entire economy for no return to come.

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