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[–] 16 points 1 week ago (1 child)

OK, so previously illegal cigs were 10% of the market, and now they're 80%. But the market has shrunk dramatically. From the article:

In 2010, about one in seven Australians smoked daily.

The country's main national household survey last year found that rate had dropped to about one in 18 people.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    If you assume the market halved, absolute illegal trade still went up 4x

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  • [–] 6 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    And if less than half as many people are smoking, that's still a win in my book.

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  • [–] -1 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Sure just ignore the drive by shootings and burning buildings on your way down the street

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  • [–] 9 points 1 week ago*

    If the market continues to trend downwards then illegal trade will fall as well until it's below pre-excise levels.

    If the market plateaus with the illegal market still above pre-excise levels then I'd agree they should remove the excise and call the policy a failure... Well, maybe, you might be able to argue some marginal increase is worth a massive decrease in smoking, not 4x, but maybe 1.1-1.3x.

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