I don't think there's a conclusion that's "far more likely" than other; multiple explanations explain the data equally well.
My preference for the great filter is just based on my pessimism on how not only power works, but how the human mind works. Since life is everywhere and always competitive, short-term survival is what life will always be programmed for; and beyond biology, we have systems. Greedy systems--systems that seek power at the expense of everything else--will be advantaged over systems that seek equilibrium.