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El Niño set to be 'strongest in living memory', says Met Office (www.bbc.co.uk)
submitted 6 days ago by to c/world@lemmy.world
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[–] 71 points 6 days ago (1 child)

Scientists typically declare an El Niño when sea surface temperatures in a key area of the Pacific are 0.5C or more above the long-term average.

Current measurements show that they are well over 2C above normal.

Latest forecasts from the Met Office suggest that this warming could exceed 3C later this year as El Niño nears its peak.

This is fucked. We’re so fucked. I don’t see how we undo the damage to our environment without millions or billions of deaths and displacements.

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  • [–] 16 points 6 days ago (1 child)

    I really wanted to look into the claim made in the article:

    The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says there is "no evidence" that climate change increases the frequency or strength of El Niño events.

    However, this is an ongoing area of research and debate for scientists.

    As far as I can tell, there is some nuance going on here that will be easily misleading.

    1. What they are saying is that climate change doesn't make for worse El Niño events, nor more frequent - the ENSO mechanism that causes them happens regardless and itself has not changed due to climate change

    2. What they're not saying here but other places do note: The baseline hotter climate of climate change DOES mean that they are worse because the background temp is already hotter, also it's believed that the hotter climate causes a "tipping point" into an El Niño more frequently

    So alas, either way you state that, there is room for someone to pipe up and be all "nuh-uh!".

    Definitely one of the things where sound bites makes it worse.

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