Ubuntu is growing faster on Windows 11 than on native Linux PCs, says Canonical
(www.windowslatest.com)
Yeah exactly, we can only speculate, rather than claiming definitively that it's one or the other.
(I do think that, if Linux was the more popular option, and folks would notice that most of the things they're running under Wine, that would remove one reason for them not to switch to Windows. But yes, it will also be reason for others to stay on Linux.)