I find this analysis is a useful starting point for discussion, although there are plenty of details one might adjust.
Personally I'm using (inter alia) claude to help me refine an interactive climate model (example here - although that's last year's version pre-ai-help ). So I care about these things.

As my own life also has an energy cost - even just sitting at a desk with computers and some heat light and food. I reckoned by my own crude calculations that my 'human' energy cost per hour was considerably higher than that of my AI assistant, which certainly helps me progress faster, so the net effect was less energy per 'task done', meanwhile we don't have infinite time to solve such problems. I'm only using claude within the limits of a pro subscription, and achieve that with tough claude_md instructions - not to go digging rabbit holes without consulting me. Sometimes it analyses and fixes autonomously and efficiently, but you have to keep alert - sometimes I interrupt and say no there's a simpler way, and draft better algorithms / structures myself. Also I use scala whose sophisticated (non-ai) tooling constrains mistakes and its mcp/lsp makes searching and refactoring across a large codebase much more efficient than claude's normal grok by subagents. Combine tools carefully, not brute force.

Evidently a big unclarified issue is the energy cost of training these things. But we don't need so much more training - for my purposes they are already good enough. The frequent new releases are about scary headlines to pump the IPOs. If this race could slow down, we could just learn to use what we've got more efficiently. In the general public discussion, I'd also appreciate clarification about how much of 'AI' energy-use is going into creating images and videos, rather than text and code, my hunch is it’s much worse for videos most of which are about trivial stuff. Also loads of datacenter energy is wasted transmitting talking-head videos around the world - that's really inefficient. So well designed code, part-aided by ai, might help find more efficient ways to run needed global dialogue.