The 2008 bailout happened because it was the banking sector that was exposed. If the consumer banks fail, everybody's accounts go up in flames.

Part of getting that bailout was that the banks had to restructure to insulate commercial banking from investment banking. Supposedly the investment arm can now get taken out, and the damage to the commercial arm is limited. I'll believe that when I see it. The big question at the moment is "how exposed are the banks?".

Oracle, Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic are all massively exposed. Nvidia and Microsoft might be big enough for a decimated version of themselves to come out the other side. Everyone else is going to the wall. No need to bail them out though. That's a contained explosion.

If the bank are making loans of hundreds of billions thinking they're sure fire money makers, but actually they're piles of shit, then it's 2008 again. That's when we see if they really protected the commercial arms of their banks.