UGL](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-UGL/?timeframe=60M) still up over 100% since June 2024.

The 3-year annualized trailing return for the ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) is approximately 42.67% to 44.73%. That was the metric I was using for the other etf. Just picking an arbitrary date to figure growth isn't very helpful, for example I could pick 6 months ago and they would be down by 44%.

I'm not betting on gold as a currency alternative. It's a pure speculative play. Central banks are buying gold to underpin their own currencies, and speculators will pile in when things come unglued. The dollar "crash" will effectively be runaway inflation.

Eh... Central banks on emerging economies are the primary buyers, advanced economies have been selling or holding what they have. This is because gold acts as a hedge against global inflation, not necessarily that they are trying to stabilize their own currency.

The dollar "crash" will effectively be runaway inflation. It will not instantly go to zero. There will be a point in time where I will liquidate and briefly go to cash, and then immediately roll over into another asset.

That's a pretty big gamble....... It's not like people know when the rug pull is going to happen.

My thinking at this point is potentially oil, as it is in high demand when there is war, and from my perspective we're teeing up WWIII right now.

See.... This is where it feels like you don't understand what you are talking about. If we have run off inflation it just doesn't stick to currency, it's going to affect the market as well. Meaning unless your plan is to physically buy barrels of oil your share in whatever oil company will devalue or collapse. You will see the share price skyrocket in nominal terms, but the actual value when adjusted to buying power will nosedive.

Also, oil may not be the best route if you really think there's going to be ww3. Production increased greatly during ww2 but the share price of oil companies like standard oil did not skyrocket like munnition manufacturing companies because the US government enacted price controls. In this day and age there could also be efforts to nationalize oil production all together.

My expectation is that the shit will hit the fan within a year though. We'll see.

Based on what? The only country that could potentially go to war against NATO would be China, and they aren't exactly the most aggressive warlike country in the world. Not to mention that China going to war with the US would be economic suicide, especially since things are still shaky after COVID. I guess the US could have been the agressor in this scenario if they hadn't just blew through all their munnitions on Iran. It's going to take at least a couple years of rapid production until they feel confident to go on the offensive with a peer adversary.

I mean it's not my money, but I think you would actually be significantly better off just buying gold from the pawnshop if you really believe in your theory. That wouldn't be my suggestion, but it's better than holding onto a leveraged etf.

Btw leveraged etf are meant to be utilize by day traders, not people holding onto stock for more than a day or two. They multiply their daily returns by rebalancing their exposure targets at the end of every day, using futures and swap agreements to meet their quota. Meaning even if the overall value of gold rises, choppy or sideways movements in the market can still tank your stock. Basically for them to meet their x2 daily multiplier both the value of gold and the overall stock market have to increase, because a lot of the growth is made on future contracts for other stocks.