in response to your first point: 24B models from this year are far better than 24B models from 3 years ago. Same model size, similar energy consumption, far better results.
30 years ago there was a lot of doubt that Moore's law could continue the pace for so long. There was no evidence that PCs would continue improving, and yet they did.
So it's really anybody's guess whether or not AI will continue improving. But with the amount of money being poured into it I'm willing to bet it will.