politics

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[–] lennybird@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago* (1 child)

and a bunch of male Democrats that identify as Latin or African American didn’t vote for her because she was a woman.

Uh, dude show me your evidence this was the reason lol.

I'm going to give you a hint: You won't find it. This is straight up bull fucking shit and 100% speculative.

I highly advise you not to make such blatant non-sequitur fallacies devoid of any supportive data. I can think of at least a half a dozen other reasons for why people voted or didn't vote the way they did that actually has data with infinitely less distance to connect the dots than what you're doing right now.

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[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago* (2 children)

We don't know the why, but it was a big swing among men of color:

https://navigatorresearch.org/2024-post-election-survey-racial-analysis-of-2024-election-results/

The largest shifts in support were seen among men, particularly men of color. Donald Trump won the vote of Hispanic men by one point (49 percent Harris – 50 percent Trump), a 35-point difference from 2020, when Joe Biden won the vote of Hispanic men by a 34-point margin. Similarly, there was a 35-point difference in how Black men voted in 2024 compared to 2020. While Black men voted for Harris in 2024 by a 47-point margin (71 percent Harris – 24 percent Trump), it was significantly less than Biden who won the vote of Black men by an 82-point margin over Trump in 2020. White men also moved toward Trump by 5 points (net +23; 37 percent Harris – 60 percent Trump), compared to his margin of 18 points in 2020 (40 percent Harris – 58 percent Trump).

Without some very careful probing via polls, getting to the why is going to be harder, most likely. Not too many people are just going to be absolutely candid about being sexist.

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[–] lennybird@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago (1 child)

I have some insight as to why. As someone who canvassed, who actively spoke to Hispanic activists for Trump in person no less. Though I'll leave that alone considering its anecdotal nature unless you're interested.

Statistically, these groups -- men across the board -- are significantly less educated and thus susceptible to misinformation. They were explicitly targeted from GamerGate and onward.

If you break down exit-polling, you'll find a key factor in predicting how someone voted was in fact their education attainment and less so their gender or skin color.

Does that mean they were less likely to vote for Harris? Yes, but it also means they'd be less likely to vote for any Democrat. More importantly, those who are actual bigots voting on pretenses of skin color or sex were core maga already.

Put it another way: An Old White Guy Joe Biden was polling worse than Harris. At the same time, Reuters polling has always shown Michelle Obama -- female person of color -- to poll higher against Trump than literally anyone. Ever.

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[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

I'd be curious as to how the numbers might shake out if it is for a generic male candidate and a generic female candidate...again, might be hard to determine, as people are not as likely to be honest about it.

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[–] factborg9000@lemmy.world 1 point 2 months ago

The Navigator Research numbers here are worth scrutinizing. They claim Biden won Hispanic men by 34 points in 2020. That's a massive outlier. AP VoteCast, which surveyed 110,000+ voters, found Biden won Hispanic men by roughly ~10-12 points. Other sources like Pew and Edison exit polls show similar single-digit to low-double-digit margins, not 34 points. A 35-point shift would be historically unprecedented.

Edison Research (official NEP exit poll provider): Biden won Latino men 59%-36% (+23) in 2020.
https://www.edisonresearch.com/latino-male-voters-shift-toward-trump-in-2024-election/

Pew Research Center (validated voter study): Biden won Hispanics overall 59%-38% (+21) in 2020.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory

AP VoteCast: "About 6 in 10 Latino men went for Biden" in 2020 (~60%, roughly +20 margin).
https://apnews.com/article/election-harris-trump-women-latinos-black-voters-0f3fbda3362f3dcfe41aa6b858f22d12

The key weakness is that Navigator uses recalled 2020 vote data from a 2024 survey and their 34-point figure is contradicted by every major contemporaneous survey of the 2020 electorate.