I haven't kept up with it for the past year, but I know enough not to trust western headlines out right or sources that say Russia has twice the casualties. But also Putin has made plenty of missteps so far.
Ignore the lib map.
Not even a little. The only key difference now is that Ukraine is regularly attacking inside Russian territory with drones but that aren't able to do enough damage to slow Russia down, and it is only making average Russians more in favor of punishing Ukraine.