Love to see some sources/research that has led you to this conclusion. From everything I've seen the strikes on refineries and Russia in general have had little real effect as Russian energy exports appear to be at a record high. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/russia-s-oil-exports-near-record-pace-as-ukraine-s-drones-target-its-refineries
The biggest effect I've seen is that it is pushing the Russian populace away from the moderate factions under Putin and more towards the more hard-line and extremist factions like those in line with Karaganov who wish to "reestablish nuclear deterrence ".
And honestly even besides all this as far as I can tell with the amount of citizens kidnapped and fed to the meat grinder by the Ukrainian government as far as I can see the literal best case scenario they can hope for is some sort of Pyrrhic victory where status quo is returned but with Ukraine effectively in ruins and with a major demographic crisis.
