Currently the rest of the stock market is essentially held up by 7 companies.

• Tier 1 — Magnificent Seven / Mega-Cap: Up 75–100%+ over five years. Cash-rich near-monopolies trading on AI futures. Effectively function as quasi-sovereign entities. Collectively hold over $420 billion in cash.
• Tier 2 — Rest of S&P 500: Up 50–60%. Piggybacking on the giants through index weighting. Solid balance sheets but increasingly dependent on AI-adjacent demand.
• Tier 3 — Russell 2000: Up roughly 17%. The “one percent of the losers.” Struggling but kept alive by access to public capital markets. 40–44% unprofitable. Facing a $709 billion refinancing wall in 2026–2027.
• Tier 4 — Private Middle Market: Flat to declining. Consolidating from roughly 200,000 to 125,000 firms over two decades (RSM). Margin-squeezed by tariffs and input costs. RSM MMBI showing fragility.
• Tier 5 — Main Street / Small Private Business: Fighting to exist. No access to Wall Street capital. Absorbing inflation that large firms pass through to customers. NFIB Optimism Index showing persistent fragility.