I did, did you?

Republicans can only lose a few seats and still hold the House majority. The political winds have been moving in the direction of Democrats given President Trump’s low approval ratings, and the president’s party usually loses seats in a midterm.

Since you're apparently going off vibes and not actual math or history, here's a short breakdown for you.

The current House makeup is 217 to 212 (plus 1 independent and 5 vacancies). That's a 3-seat advantage for the Republicans.

The historical average of a party flipping midterm seats is 27, with that number being higher for less popular presidents.

In the 2010 midterms the Republicans picked up 63 seats. This was right after a recession with an Obama approval rating in the mid-40s. Trump's approval rating is currently around 36% and the economy isn't doing well right now either.

Redistricting in the South is underway with some having been finalized and some very much still up in the air. If all those hold for Republicans and - very importantly - if all those new districts vote R, that nets the GOP between 8 and 12 seats.

In an average midterm election, that wouldn't be enough to overcome the expected flip; that's without any sort of blue wave. But there most certainly will be, as it's already underway.

Democrats have flipped 30 state-level seats since 2024 and many more local ones, in some places by as many as 30 points. They have over performed by 4.5 points on average and are D+6 on a generic ballot.

So while this race to the bottom in gerrymandering is not ideal and it sucks not to gain those seats in VA, this really isn't anything to get worked up over. It doesn't mean give up but it doesn't mean not to bust your ass either.