The Midterm Bloodbath is going to be the Dem's D-Day, and after that the fall of MAGA will become inevitable to anyone with half a brain.
Carlson, and a few others, realize that, and are trying to get in front of it, presenting themselves as the smart ones who realized that MAGA had become dangerous, and broke away. They are hoping that in the post-MAGA era, they will be seen as the reasonable ones who helped guide Conservatives away from MAGA, and into whatever lie they'll tell to replace it.
Tucker is just getting into position for the next 20 years of his career, doing essentially the same thing, spewing propaganda. He's pretending that he doesn't know that he's likely to end up in prison for a decade or so.