this post was submitted on 29 Jun 2023
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Reddit Migration
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A flood of children at the same time as an exodus of the type of users who actually upload good content to Reddit could definitely set up the conditions for a steady bleed of users away from the site, though. Especially with moderators' ability to actually do their job being impacted by the API changes.
Also worth noting that reddit control the metrics that they release for a lot of this.
There's no real measure of good engagement vs shallow engagement, so they can find a way to show that user visits are up even if the worthwhile content is starting its slow slide. Shit, i probably used to visit reddit once a day for 12 hours, but now i visit 5 times a day when i instinctively enter the URL.
So the metrics that reddit controls are showing that things are going down. How bad must things be that even reddit can't hide it from their metrics now?
If we could truly measure good vs shallow engagement, I wonder how much worse these numbers would be.
I think most of these are third party metrics collected from ad services, we've seen a few choice ones from reddit about how little traffic has dropped but of course Reddit will find ways to express an ever rising metric until they can't.
Facebook somehow reports near magical user growth, but 90% of the people I'm connected to it barely seem to be there.
I strongly suspect, but can't prove, that the 80/20 rule applies to reddit. I expect 20% of the users create 80% of the content and engagement, and that even if only 1% of reddit leaves it's almost certainly coming out of the productive 20%. However i'll bet Reddit will never start openly sharing stats about how engaged the top quintile of their users are, because that provides too much insight. Much better to talk about monthly active users and count those of us that flip over there by mistake or for one community we can't replace here.