I think some people won't be able to switch just because they've passed the point where learning new tech is possible. But I do think for those with the will to change over, it will increasingly actually be happening rather than being muttered a threat to Microsoft, especially because the main pain points of the past (software exclusivity) is starting to break down. Some games are now running better on Linux. MS Office is increasingly being superseded by alternatives like Gsuite, Libreoffice, or just learning to code in easy languages like Python/R. And unlike in the past when Microsoft overplayed its hand and changed course to regain users with Windows 7, 10, etc, this time it seems like they aren't going to change. They are in too deep.