Microsoft will for sure benefit here.
Many users, especially businesses, will simply upgrade.
Some will pay for the ESU.
Some will sign up for cloud backups.
All these benefit Microsoft.
Some fairly small number will work around Microsoft’s plan by upgrading Windows 11 where they are not supposed to or finding a way to get the updates for free.
Sure, probably the biggest fraction of users will probably do nothing. But they were already doing nothing for Microsoft so nothing changes in this case. Of anything, the load in Microsoft servers goes down a bit.
So ya, Microsoft has little incentive not to charge ahead.