They most certainly will not switch (or switch and not decide to go back after a few weeks) with the timing of the release of Battlefield 6, which requires Windows. It's an EA game, so I'm not touching that, but they're doing a lot of marketing and it's working.

This is exactly how it's going for me. I've been simply too lazy to move everything, test it all, and probably do it all over a couple times to find the distro I actually like.

I'm a gamer but on console. My PCs are all older so I use Linux on some of them..one still has windows for work software..it's glitchy enough on Windows so I haven't even tried wine.

No, you're misunderstanding. Linux supports new and old. Windows only supports newish. Gamers are more likely to be on newer hardware and so the end of win10 will still allow them to upgrade to win11. They won't have obscelecence. Older PC users will have forced obsolescence due to win 11 requirements and the eol of win10.

So, while I expect Linux use to rise with the end of win10, it won't be mainly gamer PCs. Gamers with a steam deck, already familiar with Linux might be included but that's a tiny demographic.