EDIT: Also Palin voters staying home wouldn't have helped. Peltola was already at 128K votes (48.8%) with Begich at 61K. Palin voters staying home would've meant that Peltola would've won in round 1, as Begich would've had a higher percentage but Peltola would've been boosted up to ~67%.

There were actually 2 elections here.

The special election in September held because of Don Youngs death, and a general election in November.

In the special election, Peltola started out with 74,817 votes, 39.7% of the total. Begich had 52,536.

If 5,804 people who voted Palin 1st Begich 2nd stayed home, Palin would have been eliminated. Begich would have gotten a bit under 28k more votes and Peltola would have gotten about 3.5k more votes. That puts Begich at about 80k, and Peltola at about 78k.