The pattern reads like superstition in the first place.
It is. However, having lived through Windows Me and then having to support Windows Vista shortly after launch, I drink deeply of that Kool-Aide. Microsoft seems to inflict monumentally bad ideas on their customers with every other version, with minor bad ideas sprinkled in between. Though really, the smart response to a new Windows version will always be, "Wait for Service Pack 2". That usually give Microsoft enough time to sort out the worst of the bad ideas, while still updating early enough to not be running an unsupported version.